Which are you?
- You take in all the pageantry, and agree with the choice of winners.
- You feel that it's a good idea, but don't agree with all choices.
- You hate the choices, and don't think the concept of the industry congratulating itself is deserved.
I don't care which you are. Let's get on with the article where I suggest who and what might upset the front-runners in some categories.
BEST PICTURE
PREDICTED: La La Land.
UPSET: Moonlight.
WHY?: It is an important film, made by African-Americans (a group the Oscars have neglected recently); they could try to make amends. Furthermore, they've not chosen the Bafta/Golden Globe winner for the last two years, which was La La Land this year.
LIKELIHOOD: There's a strong possibility, but never underestimate their desire to fawn over a love letter to Hollywood.
BEST ACTOR
PREDICTED: Casey Affleck
UPSET: Denzel Washington
WHY?: His Fences performance won the SAG award, and his aggressive performance could uproot the subdued Affleck.
LIKELIHOOD: Affleck has already won the BAFTA and Globe, so it's fairly unlikely he won't be rewarded for his Manchester By the Sea role. However, Washington has already won two Oscars (including a questionable one for Training Day) and is well-liked by the Academy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Usually this category is easier to call. But this year the Globe-winning Aaron Taylor Johnson hasn't been nominated, and other awards have been distributed evenly between Dev Patel and Mahershala Ali. Patel has a lot more screen time, so that could edge it out for him. Lucas Hedges is less likely, but shouldn't be ruled out completely. Michael Shannon's lack of other major nominations is an issue for him, and the nomination itself over Johnson for Nocturnal Animals was a surprise. Elsewhere is Jeff Bridges grumbling it up as usual.
It's a tough call between Patel and Ali.
BEST ACTRESS
PREDICTED: Emma Stone
UPSET: Natalie Portman
WHY?: It's a good embodiment of a real-life figure, taking on a difficult role and doing so successfully.
LIKELIHOOD: Stone has the award backing behind her so far, and her performance does make her a triple-threat in an era without them, so she is still the strong favourite. Plus, actors who have already won seem to have less of a chance. It's more like every is allowed one Oscar at some point, unless they're especially good.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTED: Viola Davis
UPSET: Naomie Harris
LIKELIHOOD: Low. Very low.
BEST DIRECTOR
PREDICTED: Damien Chazelle
UPSET: Barry Jenkins
WHY?: Jenkins' passionate, semi-autobiographical story may lack the joyous flair and visual panache of La La Land, but it packs more of a punch.
LIKELIHOOD: Fairly low, but it's possible that Jenkins can become the first black man to win the award.
The remaining awards (ie the ones the masses don't care about) are generally more set in stone, or will surprise less at least.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Manchester By the Sea. If not La La Land.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Lion seems likely, but Moonlight might sneak in.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
La La Land might be beaten by either Moonlight or Arrival. Probably the former.
ANIMATED FEATURE
It's probably the race parable Zootopia. Kubo's throwback to Harryhausen could win.
FOREIGN FILM
Toni Edrmann is the frontrunner. I''ll be honest, I know littlle about the others.
EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge / La La Land.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
La La Land / Hail Caeser.
COSTUME DESIGN
Jackie / La La Land.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Star Trek Beyond / Suicide Squad.
SCORE
La La Land / Jackie.
SONG
A La La Land song/ Moana.
SOUND MIXING
Hacksaw Ridge / Arrival.
SOUND EDITING
La La Land / Arrival.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Jungle Book. Doctor Strange at a push.
DOCUMENTARY
13th / I Am Not Your Negro.
Spot the point where I begin to lose interest in predicting. Enjoy the Oscars, even though they've made some horrendous snubs. Again.






